A new Apple patent uncovered today indicates that Apple may be releasing a new kind of mouse to replace it's current Mighty Mouse - which, quite frankly, sucks. This one would use a touchpad in place of the scroll ball, which, in my opinion is absolutely the right thing to do.

A similar patent was uncovered last year, but this newer one seems much farther along.

This new mouse also sounds at least somewhat in line with prediction #9 for 2008:

9) Apple releases a new kind of mouse with multi-touch capabilities
We already know Apple is working on a ton of new products, many pertaining to mobile computing, but the desktop is still here to stay for a while, and the Mighty Mouse - in my opinion - still sucks. The new Apple desktop keyboards (which I just got) are very slick, they need a mouse to match it. 

While this patent doesn't seem to explicitly imply multi-touch, it does talk about touch, and everything Apple does these days with touch is multi-touch.

Interestingly enough there is also talk of the device having audio and haptic (tactile) feedback.

I still find it humorous that as fast as technology is moving in the 21st century, we're still using keyboards and mice to interact with computers. This is why I'm so excited for devices like Microsoft's Surface Computing and any Apple Touch Tablet/Mobile computing device that it's likely working on.

It's nice to see that VentureBeat is moving up the Pundit Watch leaderboard. Pundit Watch is a service by hubdub.com that tracks predictions made on various things and gives them a stock-like value which cashes out when the prediction is right or wrong.

I wrote up some of its strengths and weaknesses previously here.

VenutreBeat is now #2 on the list thanks in large part of many correct predictions about the Apple announcements recently. We finally passed that pesky Perez Hilton.

Now if only I got bonus points for my ParisLemon predictions... #2 is looking particularly good at the moment:

2) Microsoft and Google's next big battle will be over who gets the rights to purchase at least part of Yahoo
While many are still waiting for Yahoo to turn around, it seems to be increasingly questionable as to if they can. I don't think they'd want to sell completely but perhaps take an investment injection such as Apple did from Microsoft many years ago and Facebook did recently from Microsoft. If Google were to win this, look for Microsoft to push for more anti-trust hearings. If Microsoft wins, look for Google to buy a half-dozen other companies Microsoft wants but won't sell to MS.

#15 is looking pretty good now as well:

15) GPS will be all the rage in consumer goods
Cars, cellphones, cameras. Parents tracking kids. Boyfriends tracking girlfriends. Someone tracking all of us - but we'll call it something more friendly - 'geotagging'. Of course the iPhone will gain GPS as well.

[Update]: VentureBeat is now #1!

WWDC was the first Apple event I've gone to and it was a bit like going to a concert. When Steve Jobs was on the stage the crowd ate up everything he was selling. When he wasn't on the stage (which was actually quite often), the crowd got antsy. Maybe that's just because they waited well over an hour into the event before unveiling what everyone was waiting for: iPhone 3G.

And boom: $199.

I barely got a chance to sit back and watch any of it since I was writing nearly every second that it was going on, but if you ever have the chance, it's definitely something worth going to.

Covering it on FriendFeed went great. Find the page with the rest of our VentureBeat coverage here.

As for my predictions yesterday...

3G iPhone - Mostly right. It has GPS and better battery life, but no video streaming (though that could change in the future with software) and the camera is the same. I nailed the black and white colors, but was off on the storage (it's still 8 and 16 gigs). My prognostication on the pricing was much better on VentureBeat than it was here -- it is in fact $199, something which I am very happy about. I predicted last June, instead it will be early July, close enough.

iPhone Nano - Wrong on this front. I thought this would be something Apple would release for $199, but instead the iPhone 3G is that price. Still, in the future, I would expect to see Apple make a smaller version of the phone.

iPhone 2.0 Software - Showed off extensively, but doesn't seem to explicitly be called OS X iPhone, even though the banners proclaim that. It won't be available until July either.

iTunes 8/iTunes App Store - The App Store was announced as is coming in July. As for iTunes 8, no word but there will undoubtedly need to be a new version for the App store.

Mac Fusion - This, apparently, was fake. Unless Apple announces it later in the week, which I doubt.

Me/MobileMe - Again, mostly right, but I was wrong on the price. I thought it would be free, instead Apple kept it at $99 for a year, which I still think is too high. Portable devices are a key part and it is in fact called MobileMe - but found at me.com.

OS X Snow Leopard - This is in fact the name of OS X 10.6 and though Apple didn't say too much about it, they did show it off to developers later in the day.

All in all not too bad. A few bloggers have expressed disappointment in the event, but I'm still in disbelief that Apple actually made the iPhone 3G $199 - that is going to be huge. I plan on getting the 16 GB white one for $299 -- only because I'm an elitist snob.

We're now just hours away from Apple's WWDC event. In case you missed the 20 other times I mentioned it, I'm going (yeah, I'm pretty excited). Naturally, I feel, like others out there, it's time to make some predictions for what we'll see. It would easy enough to go with the safe bets, but I'll go out on a limb for some of these, there really isn't too much set in stone beyond that we'll see some sort of 3G iPhone:

3G iPhone
Obviously. It will have GPS, video streaming capabilities, a better camera and better battery life. It will also be a little bit thicker, but not much. It will be available in 16 GB and 32 GB, for $299 and $399 respectively. Available in white or black. Coming in Late June.

iPhone Nano
This is the one that will be cheaper, around $199. It will also remain 2.5G and have no video capabilities. It won't be that much smaller so you can still type on the screen, but it will be thinner and weigh less. Coming in Late June.

iPhone 2.0 software
Fairly obvious. The 2.0 software will now be called "OS X iPhone" and it will have the ability to utilize 3rd party application. Available immediately.

iTunes 8/iTunes App Store
iTunes will obviously need an update for the new iPhone software/capabilities and the new App Store.

Mac Fusion
Just wrote about this over at VentureBeat tonight. This box looks to be for developers (this is a developer conference remember), and would be like a smaller, more powerful Mac Mini. It will run OS X as well as Windows and Linux thanks to Boot Camp.

Me/MobileMe
The revamped .Mac finally arrives. It will be FREE and emphasize syncing your data with your portable devices (iPhones and iPods). Premium version (beyond 10 GB) will be available as well for a fee. Wildcard: Partnership with Google on the cloud storage.

One more thing...

OS X Snow Leopard
OS X 10.6 will be shipping in January. It won't be a huge upgrade, but security and stability will be key -- as will the move to mobile computing utilzing multi-touch technology.

Coldplay closes the show
Who knows on this one, just keep seeing that new commercial...

What we won't see -- yet:
Mac Tablet/Newton - I'm guessing MacWorld 2009
Redesigned MacBook Pros - I'm thinking Fall
Apple TV update - I want a more powerful one, wait until the Fall.
Mac Mini update - They should, but never do.
New Mouse - Sometime this year, cause the Mighty Mouse sucks

I also wrote up some different potential curveballs a few weeks back on VentureBeat. I really hope I'm wrong and that Apple and AT&T do team up to subsidize the 3G iPhone down to $199. There are still rumors coming out that it is in fact happening, it just seems too good to be true.

Two days til Apple's WWDC, it's sold out for the first time ever, going to be huge. We know the 3G iPhone is coming, but what else? I did a run down of some wildcard possibilities on VentureBeat a couple weeks ago.

Cult of Mac has put together a great timeline of Steve Jobs' "One more thing" announcements throughout the years. I've embedded it below. Taking into account this history, if there is one this year, I'm going to say that it will be the rumored OS X Snow Leopard - aka OS X 10.6.

Those new rumored 3G iPhone pics are sure causing a stir. I want them to be real simply for the video chatting implications, but there do seem to be too many little oddities about the pictures. Where's the top button on the red one? Why is the "p" in Xp lowercase? What's up with the weird spacing of text blurbs?

But most importantly, if these are real, where are the cease and desist letters? Having received one myself in the past, I can tell you that those are the best indication that what you're looking at is real.

Fake or not, I do hope that these images basically capture the spirit of what the 3G iPhone will be. Did I mention that I'll be at the keynote on Monday? Yeah, I'm pretty excited.

Find the rest of the pictures here.

There's a report that Apple and its various partners have imported some 188 ocean containers into North America since March. All that is known about them is that some contained extremely blandly named "electric computers." Apple has never used this description to describe any of its products before -- so like Brad Pitt in Seven, I have to ask, "what's in the box?"

The report by ImportGenius makes a compelling case for a certain device that may be announced by Steve Jobs on June 9th at the WWDC. Are they here? Perhaps they are already even in San Francisco like me? The anticipation is killing me.

Morgan Freeman, take my gun.

"What's in the fucking box!"

It's one thing when many of your predictions for a year come true, it's another when so many of them come true just 3 months into a year. #13 could be the next to go if TechCrunch is right.

As a refresher:

13) Digg will finally be bought - by a major player
My bet is on either News Corp or Microsoft. And a stake in Revision3 will be part of the deal.

You'll notice that not only is Microsoft mentioned in TechCrunch's article, but Google is as well. Nothing like starting another battlefront in a raging war...

As we near next Thursday's Apple event where the company is expected to release information about the iPhone SDK, some details are apparently starting to leak out.

First, it seems the iTunes Store will be the main base for downloading and installing new SDK-built iPhone apps.

No real surprise here, many people expected this and it makes sense as a clean and easy way for Apple to allow for installs.

It will also, naturally, allow developers access to a simple way to charge money for their apps.

Second, it looks like Apple will have total say over which apps make the cut and which don't in terms of being included in the said store.

While I understand why Apple is doing this - they've always been about maintaining the quality and control of their products - this is quite lame. Sure the iPhone is "opening" up, but that "opening" will either need the added quotation marks or an asterisk now.

This means Apple could potentially nix something like a native Skype or other VoIP applications on the iPhone. If that's the case, look for those hackers out there cracking the iPhone to stay relevant for quite a while longer.

Third, developers won't have access to accessories.

I don't see this as that big of a deal. It would seem that developers will be able to utilize all the major components of the iPhone itself - the multi-touch capabilities, the WiFi, etc.

I care less about them using something like my car adapter - for now at least.

Fourth, rumor has it that only a very early beta of the SDK will be announced on Thursday, the real version may not be out until June!

This is not good news for Apple which naturally didn't give any hints of this the mutiple times Steve Jobs promised the iPhone SDK would be ready to go in February. It now looks more like the iPhone SDK BETA in March and the iPhone SDK actually coming in the summer at Apple's WWDC event.

Could the 3G iPhone actually beat the SDK to market?

I was pretty bummed over the weekend when I heard the rumors about Apple delaying the iPhone SDK until mid-March after repeated promises by Steve Jobs himself that we'd see it in February. But ever the showman, Jobs looks like he could distract us temporarily with a shiny new update - a Multi-Touch enabled, Penryn-powered MacBook Pro.

With rumors are shooting up all over the Internet - thanks largely to Apple's deal with Best Buy, and Best Buy's inability to keep things under wraps - we could see an announcement on this thing as soon as tomorrow.

Price points look to be the same as the current generation, and seeing as there is no huge event taking place, it's a pretty good bet these MacBook Pros will look the same as all other MacBook Pros have for the past few years now (why do they still not use the magnetic latching the other MacBook brands use?).

What has two thumbs and wants one? This guy.

Many folks were buzzing the past couple of days when Linkin Park leaked news that they would be playing at an Apple event very soon - the problem? There was no real Apple event, instead it was simply an impromptu concert by the band at an Apple store in Soho.

No new products, no new announcements, nothing from Apple. Apparently complete non-events (literally) are news worthy now.

I'd still like my new Penryn-based MacBook Pro whenever you get around to it Apple, quit teasing us.

While rumors of the Netflix service on the Xbox 360 are nothing new, when MSNBC runs a story in which Microsoft Live exec John Schappert gives the old "stay tuned" rather than "no comment" in response to the rumors, you can consider my interests piqued.

If Netflix were to somehow offer its unlimited streaming package over Xbox Live, as I wrote about a week ago, it could be the ultimate killer app. Just imagine Microsoft, recently harmed by news the PS3 was outselling them AND that their HD-DVD add-on was rendered useless with Toshiba backing out of the format, coming back with a vengeance with a Netflix deal. All of a sudden the device is the hot item again.

Of course that would be contingent on Microsoft securing an exclusive deal with Netflix and keeping it away from the Playstation 3 - who Netflix is also said to be considering a partnership with.

This would also be a huge win for Netflix which is looking better going forward now that we have one high definition format and this move would obviously take care of any digital distribution worries in a hurry.

We should know more tomorrow at the GDC in San Francisco, where none other than John Schappert will be giving the keynote. "Stay tuned".

Mike Arrington believes he has tracked down what it was that made Robert Scoble cry the other day - a new piece of software dubbed 'WorldWide Telescope' that is set to launch at the TED Conference in 9 days.

This guess would seem to be likely on the money as Dan Farber even predicted this exact application being the cause of Scoble's tears 3 days ago. He was able to pull together this guess based on some of the hints Scoble leaked out including that Curtis Wong and Jonathan Fay were the two behind the project.

Though not the Giant Onion or Doomsday Device I had been hoping for, this could be a pretty neat application: provided it does more than Google Sky already does. As an avid space-buff I loved when Google rolled out Sky layer for Google Earth, but was left wanting more - this application could very well expand on that, but there is one potential problem: word is that it will be Windows-only. Which means one thing: I won't be using it.

Microsoft, if you really are setting out to create a piece of software that can "change the world" like Scoble thinks it can - please get off your damn high horse and release it on all the operating systems. Yes, I know it's more work, but you are not helping your reputation any when you create something cool that not everyone can use.

If you think I am going to buy (or even use for that matter) Windows just to get one application - no matter how cool - you are sorely mistaken.

Apparently some folks in the Gmail Help Discussion forum have come across a new Gmail feature: Task Lists. Just as it sounds, this would be a to-do list that resides presumably in your Gmail sidebar and would allow you to easily add and check off items as needed for a better way to get stuff done in your life.

Garett at Googling Google has dug into the Gmail code and found that there are in fact references to these "Tasks", making it pretty likely these rumors are true. Also on its side is the fact that last October Google put a post up in the Google Calendar Help group that they were were listening to user feedback about wanting to-do lists and would "have more to talk about soon".

As Garett notes, the 'Remember the Milk' add-on does much of what this new feature would seemingly entail, but requires that you be using Firefox with GreaseMonkey - which I haven't done in quite some time given how fast Camino and Safari run now compared with Firefox.

A To-Do or Task List that works in both Gmail and Google Calendar would be great. Better still would be if it worked across all Google applications such as Docs, Maps, and Blogger as well. Google is definitely getting better at integrating their services - moving closer to the vaunted 'Web OS' that is an on-again/off-again buzz word.

Valleywag got the scoop that Yahoo is close to launching a new service called Yahoo! Buzz - which looks to be a Digg meets news aggregator type deal. This leads me to wonder though - what about BuzzTracker, the company Yahoo just purchased back in September?

While that $5 million deal was thought to be about bolstering Yahoo News - BuzzTracker's founder became GM and VP of Yahoo News with the acquisition - perhaps this is the true outcome, as it appears that this new Yahoo Buzz will be little more than a combination of BuzzTracker with the current Yahoo Buzz (yes, there already is one). It also looks to have some similarities Ask's new BigNews site.

Mashable's Kristen Nicole also wonders if this new Yahoo Buzz won't be meant to take on Google more than Digg or Techmeme. After all, Google has clearly been tweaking its algorithm recently to showcase more current pages - and a Yahoo Search with Yahoo Buzz results could create an interesting search engine much like Yahoo's recent test of Del.icio.us results in Yahoo Search could. This would be more in line with what I was hoping Ask would do with BigNews.

I'm not sure what to make of Robert Scoble's post today entitled "Microsoft researchers make me cry". He lays out a few times in the history of tech since the 1970s that have made him cry - we can assume in a good way, though I'm not sure there is a 'good way' to cry over tech - the Apple II, Microsoft Excel, Pagemaker, Photoshop, Netscape running the World Wide Web, among others. This is of course to preface that what he saw yesterday from two Microsoft researchers.

Scoble, ever the tease, won't be allowed to talk about this *thing* until February 27th, but he does dish out a few clues in his long post:

• The two researchers behind it are Curtis Wong and Jonathan Fay.
• It has no business model (a new Twitter?) and probably couldn't have been made by a startup because VCs would see no value in it.
• If he described it now we'd probably think it was lame without seeing a video of it in action.
• It borrows from techniques the Google Maps team is using?
• It is or utilizes some kind of software that will change the world his sons live in.

Anyone with any ideas?

While Dave Winer says in a comment on Scoble's post that he got "the image of William Hurt in Broadcast News when I read about the tear running down your cheek." I got a very different image - one of Wormtongue (Brad Dourif) in The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers with a tear running down his cheek as he first sees Saruman's massive army of Urk-hai and knows they could possibly destroy the world.

So is this the Microsoft Doomsday Device?

We'll know more at a press conference on February 27th - I hope this can live up to such a huge amount of hype, but I'm naturally skeptical.


[UPDATE]: After seeing the blogosphere's reaction, Scoble wrote a follow-up post seeming to dial-back expectations a bit. Probably a good move, very few things live up to their hype and if this is something that is actually cool from Microsoft it'd be a shame to have it be dragged through the mud simply because it was hailed as the savior of human-kind before it even launched.

It's been relatively quiet the past 24-hours from both the Yahoo and Microsoft camps in terms of the hostile takeover - too quiet. TechCrunch and Silicon Alley Insider appear to know at least half of the reason - Yahoo is in the midst of ongoing discussions with News Corp. about a potential counter offer to rival Microsoft's.

Such a deal would involve News Corp. spinning off Fox Interactive Media (MySpace's parent) to be a part of Yahoo and News Corp. giving Yahoo a large cash infusion - the total package being worth around $15 billion. In exchange, News Corp. would own upwards of 20% of Yahoo, making them the largest shareholder in the company.

This would be beneficial to Yahoo for a couple reasons, the first of which is obviously that they would remain independent (though with a new minority owner in News Corp), and second this would apparently be a better deal money-wise than Microsoft's. News Corp's package would put Yahoo's total value north of $50 billion rather than the $44.6 Microsoft is currently offering.

The main problem in such a deal, as TechCrunch notes, is that Yahoo may still have to outsource its search marketing to Google to make the numbers work. While all parties involved would likely be very happy to do that - the FTC might have something to say about it. However with three huge companies with some of the smartest minds in the world working for them, I wouldn't be surprised if they were able to come up with some sort of arrangement that makes the numbers work and wouldn't necessarily draw the ire of antitrust watchdogs.

I foresaw such a three-way deal taking place 10 days ago:

Or perhaps Google could try to funnel money to someone like News Corp. so they can put in a bid - News Corp. does seem open to someone buying into MySpace, and Google has a large ad-deal with MySpace...

Perhaps News Corp. could send MySpace Google's way rather than Yahoo's and in exchange Yahoo could take control of advertising across FIM (which Google isn't doing a great job at anyway apparently). Who knows, it's really just thinking out loud at this point, there are a million things that could go down.

This is all starting to read very much like sports teams' backroom dealings leading up to the trade deadline. The NBA is famous for its huge multi-team deals - perhaps Yahoo/News Corp/Google can pull one off. I think Yahoo would take draft picks and expiring contracts at this point.

Another on the ever-shrinking list of iPhone gripes appears to be getting closer to be eliminiated. GearLive (who was right about the iPhone 'jiggly icons' as TUAW notes) is reporting that we should expect to see Flash on the iPhone "very, very soon".

They go so far as to speculate that we could see support for Flash launch alongside the iPhone SDK - which should be the reason for the still-rumored Apple event taking place at the end of this month.

Flash would have no doubt helped original iPhone developers who had to work within the confines of the web browser, but it'll still be great to have so we can truly browse the "real" Internet on the iPhone without those empty placeholders where a Flash embed is.

Quite a few people have written that Microsoft's acquisition of Yahoo! would be equivalent to the merger of Time Warner with AOL in 2000 - that is, a disaster. Certainly there are some parallels - the size of the deal is one of the largest since that AOL/Time Warner one (though nowhere near its $160 billion level - but that was an all-stock deal), and it would essentially be one giant money-making machine joining forces with a powerful, though much smaller name that was once nearly synonymous with the Internet.

However while AOL was still very much in power at the time of its merger, Yahoo! has been on the downfall the past couple years with Google rising up to take its place. It was almost right after the Time Warner/AOL merger that AOL started its historic downfall.

So it provides a kind of nice symmetry now that Yahoo! is said to be talking with AOL about a possible merger that could fend off the Microsoft bid. Can the previous cautionary tale on Internet mega-mergers save Yahoo! from being the next one?

The two have talked before, in 2006 about a possible merger, but neither side could agree on a price. However both companies are in different, desperate situations now. Time Warner has seemingly been trying forever to figure out some way to back away from AOL, while Yahoo needs to move fast before Microsoft takes its offer right to the company's shareholders - or worse, makes a move to put its own board in place.

Another key point to this deal is only briefly mentioned in the Times' piece. Google owns 5% of AOL - they actually outmaneuvered none other that Yahoo to get it in 2005, assuring their search would be used with AOL. Now Google is trying like crazy to help save Yahoo from Microsoft - you think they didn't call that company they own a share of to come up with a scenario? Hell, they could be the main players working behind the scenes on this.

While I have doubts as to whether an AOL/Yahoo merger would actually do anything to help either company long term (Allen Stern lays out a counter scenario), short term it could certainly make for a viable alternative to the Microsoft deal. But is it wise to risk the future of your company just to avoid being bought by a non-preferable buyer? We might get to see it play out in front of our eyes.

Last week as news was breaking about Microsoft's bid to buy Yahoo for $44.6 billion dollars I used a picture from The Empire Strikes Back of Darth Vader reaching out to an arm-less Luke hanging on for dear life above an abyss below. Now with the word that Yahoo's board has decided to reject Microsoft's initial offer I'm left thinking of some dialogue from that scene:

Darth Vader: There is no escape. Don't make me destroy you. [pauses] Luke, you do not yet realize your importance. You have only begun to discover your power. Join me, and I will complete your training. With our combined strength, we can end this destructive conflict and bring order to the galaxy.

Luke Skywalker: I'll never join you!

Strong words from Vader (Microsoft) as he attempts to coax Luke (Yahoo) into a partnership to take over the galaxy (Internet) - warning him that he may need to go hostile. It kind of reminds me of Steve Ballmer's letter to Yahoo on the day of the deal.

Luke's response is harsh and firm - but "never" might still be too strong of a word here. Yahoo (Luke) has not yet decided to throw himself into the abyss (Vader/Microsoft has also not yet revealed itself to be Luke's father). The Dark Side still has hope.

You see, while Yahoo is set to reject Microsoft's initial proposal, they are not expected to say that Microsoft can't come back with a sweeter one. It makes sense, as I explained a few days ago, Yahoo's stock was at the $34-a-share level as late as October, Microsoft's bid was for $31-a-share. Yes, Yahoo was at $19-a-share at the time of the proposal, but being only a few months removed from a price nearly double that - and really not all that much changing in that time, it certainly seemed like Microsoft was simply trying to work the situation (earnings down, layoffs coming, stock at a 4-year low) and get a great price.

The consensus now is that Yahoo is holding out for an offer above $40-a-share. If Microsoft were to agree to this it could add over $12 billion dollars to the original proposal, pushing it towards a $60 billion dollar offer.

In negotiations an offer starts low, the person selling comes back with a much higher price, then the offering party usually ups their offer to be somewhere in the middle. Will we see Microsoft come back with a $52-53 billion dollar proposal?

At the very least all of this is buying Yahoo more time to potentially line up other options - as they still really don't want to sell to Microsoft. Microsoft likely knows this as well, but will it annoy them enough that they take this bid truly hostile and go right to the shareholders? That's probably unlikely.

Remember, Darth Vader offers Luke to either join him willingly, or threatens to kill him. He could probably take Luke prisoner and hold him against his will simply so he won't join with the other side (Google), but Vader knows that a captive Skywalker would be a lot less useful to him - just as an unwilling and resentful Yahoo would be to Microsoft.

More thoughts:

• Google to Microsoft: No, We Said DON'T Be Evil
• Yahoo + Google: A Last Alliance of Elves and Men Against the Armies of Mordor (Microsoft)?
• Analyst Thinks Microsoft's Yahoo Bid Is a Bluff, I Think Analyst Is Foolish
• Apple Not Likely to be Yahoo's Savior
  
• Microsoft + Yahoo != Microhoo, Yahoosoft, Mahoo, Etc...
• WWY!D? What Will Yahoo! Do?
• Interwebs Tangle, Microsoft to Buy UStream.tv (rival to the new Yahoo! Live) for $50 Million?
  
• Microsoft to Yahoo: Join Us, Join Us Or Die (and here's $44.6 billion to help you decide)