
Most other bloggers have put out their 2008 predictions already, but I wanted to wait until closer to the New Year to get every last drop out of 2007. I know people are probably pretty sick of predictions by now, but if you're interested, here are some of my thoughts as to what we'll see in 2008 - some outlandish, some safe bets:
1) Google Drive aka 'Gdrive' or 'Platypus' will be releasedSeems pretty obvious given all the
talk and
confirmations in the past couple of months, but
Garett at Googling Google isn't so confident in Google's ability to get it out the door, and seeing as this was also on my list
last year, maybe it's not such a safe bet. Pricing could be a major issue - will the service be free for a certain amount of data? If so how much storage and bandwidth will be free? Will the rest be cheaper than similar services from the likes of Amazon (
S3) and AOL (
Xdrive)?
2) Microsoft and Google's next big battle will be over who gets the rights to purchase at least part of YahooWhile many are still waiting for Yahoo to turn around, it seems to be increasingly questionable as to if they can. I don't think they'd want to sell completely but perhaps take an investment injection such as Apple did from Microsoft many years ago and Facebook did recently from Microsoft. If Google were to win this, look for Microsoft to push for more anti-trust hearings. If Microsoft wins, look for Google to buy a half-dozen other companies Microsoft wants but won't sell to MS.
3) Blu-ray will finally defeat HD-DVD thus ending the format wars towards the end of the yearWhile I am feeling more and more confident that Blu-ray will come out on top, I'm not entirely confident that it will be by the end of 2008. However if Blu-ray is able to
woo Warner Brothers to their side exclusively, it will be all but over.
4) The Nintendo Wii will continue its dominance in videogame wars but Sony's PS3 will outsell Microsoft's Xbox 360 for the yearThe Wii seems to be an unstoppable train at this point - and just imagine what will happen if they can drop the price below $200 this year (assuming they can finally meet demand). Sony meanwhile finally has a reasonable price and may soon get games that people, you know, actually want to play. Plus if Blu-ray is looking stronger that will really help (see #3).
5) Flickr will launch its video service - but it won't be meant to directly compete with YouTubeWhile this has been said to be coming
for a while, I think the smart move by Flickr would be to make this service less about entertaining videos and
stick with what Flickr does best, landscapes, home videos, etc.
6) Google's OpenSocial will fail to capture the excitement that Facebook's Platform did this yearWhile clearly Google is working to make 2008 a major year in terms of social networking for them, they have a few things up against them - notably how late they are to the game. Google, for whatever reason didn't have much of a social strategy for most of the year and now is stuck being forced to lay a "social-blanket" as it were over existing apps - and soon its OpenSocial partner's apps. This could turn out to be like painting an old brick wall - hard to get all the little spots. While I think Google absolutely needs to do this, it could be rough-going for a while - just as
we saw with Google Reader.
7) Social Network Aggregation is going to be hugeAs more and more social networks and services gain members, people are going to feel overwhelmed and need a solution to handle it all so as they don't have to go to 25 sites a day to get updates. Look for services like
FriendFeed,
Lijit, and even
Facebook and
Google to make major pushes in this arena in '08.
Louis Gray has some more thoughts on services out there already working to pull together all your profiles.
8) Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull will be the biggest film of the year It will edge out the new
Narnia, the comic trio (
Ironman,
The Dark Knight,
The Incredible Hulk),
Wall-E,
James Bond 22,
Speed Racer,
The Spiderwick Chronicles,
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince, and
Angels & Demons. Other hot films will be JJ Abrams' re-launching of
Star Trek, Spike Jonze'
Where the Wild Things Are,
Hancock, Peter Jackson's take on
The Lovely Bones, and Steve Carell as Maxwell Smart in
Get Smart. A sleeper hit could very well be Doug Liman's
Jumper, which has gotten quite a lot of buzz on the Internet. The biggest indie/cult hit should be Michel Gondry's
Be Kind Rewind, which simply has one of the
best plots that I've heard in a while. We'll also finally learn what the hell
Cloverfield is all about - and it really won't be all that exciting.
9) Apple releases a new kind of mouse with multi-touch capabilitiesWe already know Apple is working on a ton of new products, many pertaining to
mobile computing, but the desktop is still here to stay for a while, and the Mighty Mouse - in my opinion -
still sucks. The new Apple desktop keyboards (which I just got) are very slick, they need a mouse to match it.
10) NBC goes back to iTunesI've been
saying this ever since they left, but I really believe that by the end of 2008 we will see NBC shows back on iTunes after both sides give a little. This is assuming the writer's strike is over by then.
11) Microsoft really starts hyping the idea of 'Windows 7' as Apple continues to grow more quickly and Vista continues to be an albatrossVista usage will obviously continue to grow, but only because it is bundled with new PCs. They'll improve it slightly, but will not be able to shake its association with failure. Instead their tune will turn to the
next OS and making it the best one based on "all they've learned" from Vista. Meanwhile people will continue to switch to the Mac platform whether it be via desktop, laptop, sub-laptop, or mobile device (iPhone, iTablet, etc...).
12) Microsoft will enter the mobile phone marketLest there be a bandwagon they don't jump on.
13) Digg will finally be bought - by a major playerMy bet is on either News Corp or Microsoft. And a stake in Revision3 will be part of the deal.
14) Blockbuster will make a last ditch effort to save itself via MovielinkBlockbuster will come out with some outrageous deal trying to save itself from the Netflix/iTunes rental onslaught. It will fail.
15) GPS will be all the rage in consumer goodsCars, cellphones, cameras. Parents tracking kids. Boyfriends tracking girlfriends. Someone tracking all of us - but we'll call it something more friendly - 'geotagging'. Of course the iPhone will gain GPS as well.
16) Yahoo makes a bid to buy TwitterYahoo, needing some kind of good hype/momentum will attempt to buy Twitter.
17) The Beatles will FINALLY be on iTunesThe Long and Winding Road... There will be some kind of special Beatles iPod. Paul McCartney will speak to Steve Jobs via satellite feed to announce it at an Apple event. Ringo won't be invited.
Last year it was 7 predictions, this year 17. We'll see how I did in December 2008...