Prediction #12 of 2008 was that Microsoft would enter the mobile phone market - and with Microsoft buying the company behind the Sidekick yesterday, Danger, that could be looking a lot better.While this might not seem a very hard prediction to make by simply noting that there aren't too many markets which Microsoft doesn't enter where there is money to be made, Bill Gates himself is on record as saying Microsoft will not be entering the cellphone market.
"No, we won't do that. In the so-called smart phone business we will concentrate solely on software with our Windows Mobile program. We have partnerships with a lot of device manufacturers from Samsung to Motorola and this variety brings us significantly more than if we would make our own mobile phone."And yet Bill Gates is also on record saying in 2005 that MP3 players would be taken over by cellphones as the music players of choice when asked about the iPod's success. While he almost certainly probably right about that, it didn't stop him from throwing aside his own advice and launching the Zune a little over a year later.
...We'll set aside for a second that he basically told Steve Jobs how to sustain his success there - make a cellphone, shhhh...
And yet it's also important to remember that Bill Gates is no longer in charge of Microsoft. While he might not have seen it as wise for the company to enter the cellular handset business, you certainly can't put it past CEO Steve Ballmer.
If (and when) Google starts encroaching on some of Microsoft's Windows Mobile partners with their Android platform, and Apple's iPhone sales keep rising, you'd better believe Ballmer will start looking for alternatives to keep Microsoft alive in the mobile realm. The obvious answer may be to create a cellphone.
Don't be shocked if that is a ZunePhone (zPhone) that takes quite a few cues from the Sidekick - which, probably not coincidentally, Google's new Director of Mobile Platforms, Andy Rubin, was integral in creating as the founder of Danger - Microsoft's new acquisition. It's all connected...
[photo: flickr/dhan911]










2 comments:
Excellent commentary, and right on the money. In fact, you beat me to what I was going to post on my own blog -- so I won't even bother.
Gene from ZuneChannel.com
The world has learned of yet another earth-shaking deal (I have a lot more on the way), we are purchasing Danger Electronics, maker of the hip-top Sidekick Phone and OS!
Why would Microsoft buy Danger? Isn't the answer obvious?
Z u n e P h o n e !
Danger Electronic's founder, Joe Britt, was once a Microsoft employee and he has been working feverishly for eleven years to get back! Congratulations Joe!
My fellow ZuneSceners are in an uproar because they think we at Microsoft lied about our intention to develope a ZunePhone. Hey! Fellas, I have told you for months of MY intention to ZunePhone the world! If we "mislead" the "outsiders" it's not a lie, it's a strategic move.
Note to Apple and the iPhone crowd:
Be afraid! Be veeery afraid! ZunePhone is on the way!
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